Wednesday, December 07, 2005

Raymond James' Vinciquerra Latest Passenger on The Short Bus

It looks like Raymond James & Associates analyst Michael Vinciquerra decided to give making a call in the market another shot -- seeing as though he's been wrong about Arca each time he has published a report.

Most recently, May 4, he decided to slap an "underperform" rating on the stock. For accountability sake, AX closed on May 4, 2005 at $33.88. Today AX closed at ~$55 -- the stock is up ~60% from his pathetic little downgrade.

Vinciquerra, Reppetto, Chamberlain, and Herr -- most notably -- have pie all over their faces. They've lost their customers mega-bucks, and still continue to draw a paycheck from their employers. Honestly, a 6-year old could be just as wrong! It's amazing that buy-side PMs would actually pay attention to these analyist's idiotic discourse, let alone act on their reports.

Vinciquerra, et. al. keep coming back to market share for NYX. They need to open their collective eyes and realize that the game's changed. They can't apply their math skills in a spelling bee -- financial exchanges are radically different now than they've ever been, and this transformation is literally just beginning.

There's more to the NYX business model than there's ever been to that of the NYSE. There will be revenue streams that have never existed for the exchange before. Costs will be cut enormously, and margins will grow.

To be sure, the economies of scale that exist with NYX are, in-and-of-themselves enough to get excited about. Can any of these analysts talk about the incremental costs involved in collecting revenue from new listing requirements for smaller companies -- you know, the kind that traditionally have gone to the Nasdaq.

NYX will grow its market share, not only among its listed companies (which it essentially has a monopoly on), but it will grab share from Nasdaq in terms of OTC stocks. They've already gained considerable share from the AMEX, in terms of ETF listings.

Options, futures, bonds, PC computing power are all revenue streams that these analysts neglect to talk about. Do they think NYX will actually lose market share in options? ETFs? Futures? Bonds? Come on! These are things that currently stand at 0% market share for NYX -- that means that there's only one direction to go (in case these bozos read this, let me spell it out so you can understand). . .U-P!

Today's action was the ole voting machine. Eventually, cream rises (as it has), and the NYX will stand on its own merit. These anal-ists already look like knuckleheads. History has proven that they're clueless about NYX. But once the NYX starts firing on all cylanders, and management focuses on executing a business plan (not focused on the largest deal in US equity market structure history), then, just then, these anal-ists will join the likes of Henry Blodget -- crap that just gets flushed down the toilet (and into other professional endeavors).


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