Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Keeping An Eye On The Ball

Folks, keep in mind Ben Graham's axiom, "Though the stock market functions as a voting machine in the short run, it acts as a weighing machine in the long run." (Graham was Buffet's prof and one of his biggest influences while getting an MBA at Colombia University).

In the long run, AX (read: "NYX") tips the scales. History has shown that at each 0-figure the stock flirts with sellers. It happened at 30 (Idiotic anal-ists and Langone and Higgens = catalysts); it happened at 40 (we hung out between 36-40 for quite some time, while being told that the vote won't pass, that the regulators wouldn't approve of the merger, etc.). We bounced around 50 for some time given the overhang from the aforementioned. Now we're seeing the same bumper game with 60.

Events left till deal closes:
Dec. 1, 2005: Meeting among NYSE seatholders
Dec. 6, 2005: Vote among NYSE seatholders
Some time very near 12/06/2005 NYX should make an announcement that the deal will close.

Regulators have already blessed the deal. All that's left are the aforementioned factual events. The rest is conjecture among folks that are paid to create stories (anal-ists and bidness writers).

In baseball, many players miss making contact because they take their eye off the ball at the last second -- arguably the most crucial second for a batter as pitches curve, dip, dance, etc. The NYX deal is not much different. NYX stakeholders need to keep focused on the pitch.

This one has all the makings for a whopper of hit!


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