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Thursday, October 05, 2006

Great Strides

The market seems to be starting to understand the NYX story. The stock has made its way back to levels not seen since last Spring after taking a pounding from a strikingly high ratio of artificial sellers (see short interest of 10.10% as of 9/12/06) and a plethera of media and analyst nonsense to fuel bearish sentiment.

DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN

It's striking to look at the year/year similiarities between NYX last year and this year. Of course, it's not exactly apples-to-apples since last year at this time Archipelago's stock, AX, was not only trading on its own merits, but it was also essentially a proxy for shares of NYX which didn't become publicly-held until only about seven months ago.

Last December the stock's headwind centered around the notion that NYSE seatholders like Langone and Higgens would lead a revolt against the terms of the AX/NYSE merger. There was much made of coalitions that didn't support the terms of the merger. Similiar to the volatility that surround shares of NYX (that are likely) due to jitters about things like the Euronext deal not getting done, AX's shares would have significant price fluctuations that likely had something to do the market's worries that the AX/NYSE would not get done.


RAYMOND JAMES' DISCONNECT

On 10/2/2006, Raymond James contrarian, Michael Vinciquerra downgraded NYX from Market Perform to Underperform. Lets not forget Vinciquerra's downgrade on 5/9/2005 when AX sat at $33/share. For those that listen to quarterly calls, you've heard Mr. Vinciquerra make comments/ask questions which reflect his poor handle on NYX's business. Usually what Vinciquerra thinks is counter to what the market thinks about NYX. And so far, this latest downgrade is no different. NYX closed at 73.86 on 10/2/06 -- essentially 4 points lower than today's intraday high.

I encourage you to flip through the archives here at NYSE ArcaNews and read historical posts that document how often analysts like Vinciquerra, have missed the mark with NYX/AX.

FIRING ON ALL CYLANDERS

Great to see another Nasdaq defection to NYX. Today, Metal Management (NYSE: MM) debuted on the Big Board marking
the 14th transfer to NYSE Group markets year-to-date, following six transfers from Nasdaq, one transfer from Nasdaq to NYSE Arca and six transfers from Amex.

It appears that things are headed for a completed deal with Euronext, that listings are growing solidly, and that the breadth of product and service offerings that NYX serves up is increasing with exceptionally-talented, experienced, and connected managers leading the charge. Hybrid seems to be humming along as the system went through an impressive test on 9/30 involving the trading of about 6 billion shares (compared with the average 1.4 billion trades in a day).

And on 10/6, NYX will
roll out two listed securities on the new Hybrid platform! American Express Company and Equity Office Properties. Kellogg and LaBranche and will handle trading for these two stocks.

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