Wednesday, June 22, 2005

January 2006 $65 call premium -

Interesting take on the street's perception of a deal going through and the value of the new combined company -- the 65 Jan '06 calls are asking $1.00 as of 12:05 PM on 6/22/2005 when the stock is trading at ~$40.

The call is ~25 toytles outta the money. To be sure, catalysts leading up till then include: at least another rate hike (market should be relieved after the ninth inning), arca/nyse proxy will be released, regulators'll approve the merger, langone will be (even more) "long gone," analysts will start to understand the market potential (and press coverage will be heightened), NYSE Group IPO will be priced, nyse seat holders will sell their seats for (around) 70% of the new exchange, the NYSE will transform to a "for profit" company, and regulation nms will be digested.

In the meantime, Nasdaq/Instinet will be a larger ECN and a non-issue in the duopolical landscape (read the fifth to last sentence on). The NYSE Group should emerge as the most innovative market in the world and their (read: our) footprint will expand overseas as well as in the US.


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